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1. The Work of W.D. Gann
Market Predictions
As an author, I want to give you a reason to read this book that goes beyond my assurances that the material is useful. So I want to begin by referring you to some of Gann’s greatest market predictions and how he profited from those moves. Throughout Gann’s works, he advised his students to use all their trading and forecasting tools all the time to discover the forces at work in any given market. Therefore, sharing his forecasting/trading successes should give you confidence that the information ahead in this book will help improve your own investing methods.

One of the most concise and publicly accessible records of Gann’s market predictions is an article written by Richard D. Wyckoff in December 1909, titled “William D. Gann: An Operator Whose Science and Ability Place Him in the Front Rank—His Remarkable Predictions and Trading Record.” The article was published in Volume 5 (Number 2) of the Ticker and Investment Digest, a very influential stock market publication at the time.

The first part of the article directly explores Gann’s general methods of market analysis. Later in the article, Wyckoff shares the findings of William E. Gilley, who was brought in to validate the success (or failure) of Gann’s methods. Gilley was an Inspector of Imports in New York with 25 years of experience with the markets. During the time that Gilley observed Gann, he watched Gann make 286 trades. Of those, 264 were winning trades, for a success rate of 92 percent!1

Above all, Gilley documented a series of predictions that Gann made during October 1909. Some of Gann’s more remarkable predictions are as follows:

Union Pacific (stock)

“In 1908 when Union Pacific was 168 1/8, he told me that it would not touch 169 before it had a good break. We sold it short all the way down to 152 3/8, covering on the weak spots and putting it out again on the rallies, securing a 23 points profit out of an eighteen-point move.”

United States Steel (stock)

“He came to me when United States Steel was selling around 50 and said ‘This Steel will run up from 58 but it will not sell at 59. From there it should break 16 3/4 points.’ We sold it short around 58 3/8 with a stop at 59. The highest it went was 58 3/4. From there it declined to 41 1/4 – 17 1/2 points.”

Wheat (commodity futures)

“At another time wheat was selling at about 89¢. He predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35. We bought it and made large profits on the way up. It actually touched $1.35 1/2.”

Wheat

“One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer (1909) when he predicted that September wheat would sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September. At twelve o’clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option was selling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled. Mr. Gann said ‘If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what price it is now, it must go there.’ It is common history that September wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of the trading, closing at that figure.”

United States Steel

“In our presence Mr. Gann sold Steel common short at 94 7/8, saying that it would not go to 95. It did not.

On a drive which occurred during the week ending October 29th, Mr. Gann bought Steel common at 86 1/4, saying that it would not go to 86. The lowest it sold was 86 1/8.”

I hope that Gilley’s observations presented within the context of Wyckoff’s article have brought your attention to what Gann was able to accomplish investing in the markets. Gann dedicated his life’s work to understanding the markets and the principles that govern them, and it is no small feat to have such insight. This is why what Gann had to share through his books and courses is of such great value. The lessons taught in those pages are among the tools he used to master the market as he did.

Publications
W.D. Gann wrote several books. Of these, five open with a portrait of Gann. Every time I see one of those portraits, I feel that his expression conveys the following—“Trading is serious business. Get ready to work hard and come out a more successful trader on the other side.” To impart his trading wisdom, Gann published the following titles:

• Truth of the Stock Tape (1923)

• Tunnel Thru the Air (1927)

• Wall Street Stock Selector (1930)

• New Stock Trend Detector (1936)

• How to Make Profits Trading in Puts and Calls (1937)

• Face Facts America (1940)

• How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities (1941)

• 45 Years in Wall Street (1949)

• Magic Word (1950)

He also put together market courses. Both his Stock Market Course and his greater Master Commodity Course were ready for purchase by 1950—the Stock Course for $2,500, and the Commodity course for $5,000. According to the U.S. Inflation Calculator (www.usinflationcalculator.com), in today’s dollars, those values equate to more than $23,800 and $47,700, respectively!

All these books and courses are available for purchase through the Lambert-Gann Publishing Company (www.wdgann.com). Generally, experts recommend studying Gann’s works in the order in which he wrote them. All his books present trading tools and ideas that can be directly applied to the markets. However, I focus primarily on How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities because it is the book my father first handed me when introducing me to Gann’s works. I asked my father why he chose this particular book, and he said he had come to learn that it clearly delineated rules pertaining to a few important topics. The first was on protecting a position in the market by using stop orders. The second category was “buying points,” the terminology Gann used to describe signals to buy into the market, or go long. The third category was “selling points,” describing how to sell into the market, or go short. My father said the Commodities book not only explored these key topics, but also presented many examples to reinforce the stated rules, making it easier to directly apply the concepts to any market.

In How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities, the following always jumped out to me in the Foreword, written by Gann himself: “I do not believe in gambling or reckless speculation, but am firmly convinced, after years of experience, that if traders will follow rules and trade on definite indications, that speculation can be made a profitable profession.” Right there we have the keys—follow the rules and trade on definite indications. But what comprises that? The chapters ahead explore those rules and tenets.

Gann also wrote, “Trading in commodities is not a gambling business, as some people think, but a practical, safe business when conducted on business principles.” You may be wondering, just what are Gann’s “business principles”? You will discover these in the pages ahead.

Focus of This Book
From all the original materials studied by many Gann experts, Gann’s work can fall into one of two categories. The first is trading methodologies. How did Gann actually trade the market? He developed a system of rules that he applied in a consistent and disciplined manner. That is information that I explore in this book so that you can directly apply it to your charts.

The second category of Gann’s work is forecasting methodologies. Gann employed a multitude of forecasting methods, such as measuring angles on his handwritten charts and using natural squares. These were among the prime tools he used to make predictions about future market action. Forecasting tools cover when to invest. But trading methodologies cover how to invest, returning to the title of this book.

The chapters ahead contain many of Gann’s trading principles and methods, interpreted through both diagrams I’ve created and chart examples. Toward the end of the book, I show you how Gann combined these tools, and I guide you in learning more directly from his written works. I believe that the greatest value in what I’ve provided lies in the individual examples. They all apply directly to any market you choose to trade, and I encourage you to follow along with the details of each example as it is presented.

Trading Rules
Some of the other books that analyze Gann’s works, and many of the websites and blogs that touch upon the subject, explore an important list of trading rules that Gann wrote back in 1949. 45 Years on Wall Street lists 24 “never-failing” trading rules based upon Gann’s personal experience (see p. 16 and 17 there). However, eight years earlier, Gann had published a list of 28 “valuable” rules in How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities (see p. 43 there). From the list of 28 rules to the list of 24 rules, Gann altered only a few rules, due to the focus of the subject matter (stocks versus commodities).

Appendix A of this book contains Gann’s original 28 rules, incorporating the stock-related edits. As you can see, many of Gann’s rules use negative words, such as never and don’t, to get his points across. The last of the 28 rules even states, “Avoid getting in wrong and out wrong; getting in right and out wrong; this is making double mistakes.” This rule really resonated with me when I first read it. It made me realize that if I could break down the elements of my thoughts and actions (essentially, these rules), I would be more likely to do the one thing Gann wanted his students to do but that he didn’t say outright: Get in (the market) right, and get out right.

To focus on correct action, I decided to go through Gann’s rules and rephrase any that were written with negative language. Why? Because I believe that telling students what they should or can do is a more effective teaching method than telling them what they shouldn’t or can’t do.

Therefore, Appendix B includes a second list of Gann’s rules, but in their “affirmative” form. I refer to the “affirmative” rules throughout this book where applicable.

To begin...

Gann Rule (Affirmative) #26: Only follow another man’s advice if you know that he knows more than you do.

I’m sharing this rule first to encourage you to explore the rest of this book proactively. I have come to see how Gann’s trading methodologies work time and time again, but don’t take my word for it. Examine the examples and even observe your own markets of interest to see the knowledge at work.

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